Cheerful Curmudgeon

A complete lack of ideas and the power to express them.

  • Home
  • About Me
    • Art Zemon’s PGP Key
    • Privacy Policy
  • Bede BD-4C
    • Hall of Fame
  • Piper Arrow

How Pilots Look at Weather

July 24, 2011 Art Zemon

People often look at me funny because I either choose to fly or choose to cancel a flight when the opposite course seems right. It happens because pilots look at weather a little bit differently, but that can be hard to explain when I do not have a computer handy. This morning offers a perfect chance to explain this kind of weird situation because I am not flying and have great graphics at hand to illustrate the situation.

I canceled a flight from St. Charles, MO to Oshkosh, WI this morning, despite gorgeous sunny weather in both cities. Not only did I cancel the flight, I cannot accurately predict when I will be able to make the trip, despite relatively good weather forecasts in both Missouri and Wisconsin. It could be 48 hours or more until I can safely fly, proving the adage: Time to spare, go by air.

I started my weather briefing this morning by laying my intended course on top of a current radar map. From this, you can see the immediate problem. (Click on the image to see larger version.)

Flight route through a thunderstorm
Planned flight route which would take the plane through a thunderstorm

Small airplanes and red stuff on the radar map don’t mix so the first thought is: Perhaps I could fly west, through the “gap” between the large storms. This might well be successful if the small storms cells over southeast Iowa are dissipating instead of growing. The animated radar loop answers this question. (Click the image to see it larger.)

Animated radar loop
The animated radar loop shows smaller thunderstorms growing between two larger systems.

The animation, showing the progression of the storms over the last hour, shows that the space between the large systems is filling with more red stuff (strong, small storms). It is becoming a wall, not an open gap. With the closure of the space between the systems, the storm line from well west of Kansas City to Chicago blocks travel by small plane from Missouri to Wisconsin.

Since I cannot fly now, the next question becomes: When can I go? For this, we turn to the current surface weather analysis chart and the 24 hour forecast chart. (Click for larger versions.)

Surface analysis
Surface analysis chart shows a front extending from the central plains well past Lake Michigan
24 hour surface forecast chart
The 24 hour surface forecast chart show the front moving south but still generating weather that might block flights to Wisconsin

The surface analysis chart shows the weather at about 4:00am this morning. The 24 hour forecast shows that, at about 1:00am tomorrow, a front will still lie across my route and may well be generating more rain and thunderstorms.

From this unscientific analysis, I reached several conclusions. First, I am not flying to Oshkosh this morning. I am much better off at home, frustrated with a delay, than stuffed into a smoking crater in a farm field under a thunderstorm in Iowa. Second, there is some small chance that the storms will blow through by later in the day and I might be able to fly late this afternoon or early this evening. Third, tomorrow is another day, even though it does not look very promising, either.

If you want to poke around at these charts yourself, see www.AviationWeather.gov and www.Wunderground.com.

For the conclusion of this story, see When the Weather Cooperates.

Aviation, Safety, Travel

Recent Posts

  • Stretching a Photo April 21, 2025
  • There are Elephants in the Room April 10, 2025
  • Let’s Eliminate Real WFA April 1, 2025
  • Thumb Wrist Neck Waist Height March 18, 2025
  • Avoid Targeted Advertisements February 5, 2025

About Art Zemon

Omni-curious geek. Husband. Father. Airplane builder & pilot. Bicyclist. Photographer. Computer engineer.

Comments

  1. Ed Greenberg says

    July 24, 2011 at 12:52 pm

    Sorry to hear about the WX, but glad to hear about your choices. When you go, fly safe, and have fun.

    E

  2. Dave Doherty says

    July 25, 2011 at 7:40 am

    You made a proper Decision, Art. I’d rather have you around another day than the alternate.

    Since you were planning on flying to OSH today (and subsequently scrubbed), I presume you got that nosewheel casting replaced. Congratulations on that!!

  3. Brian says

    July 27, 2011 at 8:03 am

    Thanks for a more in-depth look at weather and flying. Very interesting!

Categories

  • Aviation (261)
    • Bede BD-4C (174)
    • Soaring (5)
  • Bicycling (37)
    • St. Louis to Atlanta (8)
    • St. Peters to Minneapolis (18)
  • Business (48)
  • Cabbages & Kings (24)
  • Communicating (37)
  • Ecology (21)
  • Economy (8)
  • Family (35)
  • Finding the Good (43)
  • Fun (188)
    • Six Word Stories (8)
  • Gardening (5)
  • Genealogy (5)
  • Government (35)
  • Health (67)
  • Judaism (10)
  • Men (12)
  • Mideast (5)
  • Movies (8)
  • Philosophy (15)
  • Photography (27)
  • Rants & Raves (103)
  • Recommendations (35)
  • Safety (37)
  • Science (22)
    • Biology (7)
    • Physics (7)
    • Pyschology (3)
  • Technology (195)
    • eBooks (7)
    • Internet (66)
    • Software (63)
    • VOIP (5)
  • Travel (43)
  • Tzedakah (12)
  • Women (5)

You Will Also Like

  • Art Zemon's Genealogy
  • Art Zemon's Photos
  • Mastodon @babka.social
  • Mastodon @raphus.social

Search

#DonorForLife

6 gallon blood donor badge
#DonorForLife - Give Blood - Save Lives

Archives

Copyright © 2025 · Daily Dish Pro Theme on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in